Elections and Politics 1 Dec 2015

December 20th General Election: Forecast

The results of the Spanish general elections on December 20 are marked by uncertainty. The evolution of the situation in Catalonia and the upward trend of the intention to vote in favor of Ciudadanos affect the variability of the vote. In previous elections, the Partido Popular and the Partido Socialista seats in most provinces were distributed under the nine deputies. In 2015, with 4 national parties above 11 %, the scene is much more open.

The study analyzes the distribution of seats province by province establishing two possible resulting scenarios: first, based on the CIS Barometer October 2015; the second, pondering these data with the evolution lived in the November surveys. The analysis shows thirty deputies who may be member of one or another party with minor variations to vote.

Based on these scenarios, the possible agreements of governance in the XI Legislature are presented.

Joan Navarro, Partner and Vice Chairman of Public Affairs at LLORENTE & CUENCA

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